Monday, December 8, 2014
Monday, December 1, 2014
Friday, November 21, 2014
Thursday, November 20, 2014
The Best Response for Republicans to the President’s Plan on Illegal Immigration
The Best Response for Republicans to the President’s
Plan on Illegal Immigration
Unfortunately, it is simple human nature for people to get
defensive and then project their anger when confronted with actions they
strongly oppose. But from a public policy
perspective, professionals, even professional politicians should be able, at
least once in a while, rise above their anger and do their jobs as the stewards
of our public policy.
The president was clearly angered by the drubbing he took in
this year’s midterm elections. And
Republicans have strong feelings about being “dissed” by the president. But folks, for goodness sakes, let’s at least
try on this one to do something right.
We will never reconcile all views on illegal immigration, but our system
is one of compromise, three equal branches of government, and an allegiance to
the best welfare of the American people.
My plan is as follows:
1.
The president, Democrats and Republicans agree
upon a date to achieve a consensus on proposed legislation. Let’s say a target date of May 1, 2015
2.
In exchange for the date agreement,
a.
The Democrats get Republican approval to do part
of a DACA program for the adults that are the object of this issue, similar to
what was done with DACA. There would be
no decisions about status for the people involved, but all the information work
would get done.
b.
The Republicans would get an immediate all out
effort on the part of the federal government to seal the borders by whatever
means is required to actually show tangible results
3.
Next an equal number of Republicans and
Democrats would form a project team to come up with a consensus plan. Importantly, all meeting on this topic in the
White House or by the White House team between now and when the legislation is
agreed to would be exclusively by the agreed upon team and the president would
promise not to have any partisan meetings on the subject.
4.
A broad outline would be immediately agreed upon
as a structure for the final result
a.
Hard, tangible metrics for identifying success
in sealing the border would be agreed to
b.
It would be agreed that no deal is complete
without demonstrable success in sealing the border
c.
There would be a minimum of a 10 years wait for
any newly approved legalized people before they could apply for citizenship and
voting rights
d.
But the process would approve a process for
legalization after the 10 year waiting period.
Now I know that the Democrats will complain that there is no
way to truly seal the border and would protest that part, and the Republicans
would call the post 10 year wait and
amnesty and would protest that part. But
the fact is that both parties and their presidents and big shots are
responsible for the current situation with millions of illegals, so both
parties need to step up to the plate and make a compromise. But within this broad outline is a deal that
can resolve most of the issues for both parties and stop the problem from
persisting.
Wednesday, November 19, 2014
Tuesday, November 18, 2014
Not worried about a recession? Buy these 10 stocks - Nov. 18, 2014
Not worried about a recession? Buy these 10 stocks - Nov. 18, 2014
NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
The U.S. economy is chugging along like a slow-moving train.
Morgan Stanley believes that slow pace means there's little risk of the economy derailing until 2020 -- or even beyond. That would make it the longest expansion on record and be great news for the stock market.
But not all stocks would respond the same to this moderate but persistent growth scenario.
Here are the 10 biggest stocks on Morgan Stanley(MS)'s list of "attractive investment opportunities" if the economy keeps growing.
American Express: American Express (AXP) makes money when people swipe their cards on everything from airline tickets to theme park trips. Spending would surely accelerate in a longer economic cycle, boosting AmEx revenue growth from 5% now to 8% or even higher, Morgan Stanley predicts.
Bank of America and Citigroup: If the economy remains on track, Bank of America (BAC)and Citigroup (C) would capitalize on stronger loan growth, improved margins and better expense ratios. Basically, they'd make a lot more money.
These banking titans would also have to set aside less money for loans that go bad during times of economic stress. While BofA is up 10% this year, Citi has lagged behind with just a 3% gain.
BlackRock: The world's largest asset manager is definitely cheering for a longer economic expansion. In that scenario, equities would most likely outperform fixed income. That plays right into BlackRock (BLK)'s hands because it is holding roughly $2.4 trillion of equities, making up more than half of its total assets under management. BlackRock would also benefit because its high-margin ETF business, iShares, is skewed heavily (80%) toward equities.
Caterpillar: There may be no member of the Dow as economically sensitive as Caterpillar(CAT). That's because it has significant exposure to everything from construction and mining to oil & gas and transportation. Caterpillar's organic growth is "highly correlated with global industrial production," Morgan Stanley said.
Facebook and Google: Companies tend to ramp up advertising spending when they are feeling more confident about the economy. That's huge for Facebook (FB, Tech30) andGoogle (GOOGL, Tech30), which generate nearly all of their revenue from ad spending.
These tech titans are beloved by Wall Street analysts (more than 80% have buy ratings on the stocks) because they are capitalizing on the rapidly-growing search and mobile display ad markets.
Schlumberger: Schlumberger (SLB) doesn't have the name recognition of the other stocks on this list, but it's got the most support from analysts. A whopping 94% of analysts covering the oil services company have a buy rating on it and the average 12-month price target of $120.90 implies a sizable 26% rally from current levels.
Schlumberger "should be a prime beneficiary of the increased energy production that comes with economic expansion," Morgan Stanley wrote.
Union Pacific: Union Pacific (UNP)'s 43% surge in 2014 has been driven by positive trends in the railroad industry, including solid volume growth and productivity gains. Expect those bullish trends to continue if the economy continues to expand.
"We see relatively few company-specific risks that could derail the company's earnings growth potential," Morgan Stanley wrote.
Walt Disney: The home of Mickey Mouse has a nice one-two punch tied to the economy. First, it stands to gain from stronger ad spending on its ESPN and ABC TV networks. Secondly, Disney (DIS) cashes in when consumers spend more money at its theme parks, an area the company has been investing heavily in recently, and on merchandise.
Methodology: Morgan Stanley compiled the list by focusing on fundamental business models, not valuations. The firm only considered stocks it rates overweight or equal-weight and then applied a quantitative tool that factors in expected performance over the next two years.
Morgan Stanley said the stocks this process identified represent attractive opportunities over one, two and five year time horizons if the expansion continues to 2020.
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