Friday, March 8, 2013

The Australian Regulatory Landscape for Online Gambling Operators in 20131 - Media, Telecoms, IT and Entertainment - Australia

The Australian Regulatory Landscape for Online Gambling Operators in 2013<SUP>1 </SUP> - Media, Telecoms, IT and Entertainment - Australia


Australia: The Australian Regulatory Landscape for Online Gambling Operators in 20131 
Gambling Law & Regulation: March 2013

07 March 2013
Article by Jamie Nettleton 
Introduction
In early 2013, Australian gambling law is in a state of flux, particularly given that, first, it is a Federal election year, and secondly, the Federal legislation which prohibits online gambling remains under review. Given these two factors, it is difficult to predict how or whether the law affecting online gambling will change in 2013.
The IGA
The Interactive Gambling Act 2001 (Cth) (IGA), which prohibits the provision and advertisement of online gambling services (other than wagering and lotteries services, save to a limited extent) to Australian residents, remains the subject of a review by the Department of Broadband, Communications and Digital Economy (the Department) (which is responsible for overseeing the IGA). Whilst the Department published its Interim Report in May 2012, its final report has not been released.
Until the Department's review is completed, whether through the publication of a final report or otherwise, it will be difficult for the recommendations contained in the Interim Report to receive any serious consideration from Australian lawmakers. These recommendations include proposals that the IGA be amended to liberalise online tournament poker for a five year trial period and that online in-play bets be permitted (subject to a prohibition on microbets).
Social Media Gaming
This is one area on which we expect significant headlines this year. The legal position in Australia (which is recognised in the Interim Report) is that games which utilise virtual currency are not prohibited under the IGA because the IGA's definition of "gambling service" is not satisfied, on the basis that virtual currency is not able to be exchanged for real currency.
In early January 2013, anti-gambling politician, Senator Nick Xenophon, announced that he would introduce draft legislation for consideration by the Australian Parliament to amend the IGA to ensure that virtual currency games are prohibited. Senator Xenophon referred to Slotomania in his comments. Senator Xenophon's indicated that his concern is, broadly speaking, that Slotomania and games like it are similar to electronic gaming machines and therefore normalise gambling to their players, who may be children.
However, whilst this concern has been given extensive publicity, it remains to be seen whether any changes will be made to Australian law.
Sports Betting: New Entrants
Irrespective of whether changes are made in 2013 to the IGA to remove the prohibition on online in-play betting in relation to sports, it is likely that the sports betting market in Australia, which in 2012 saw the entry of bet365, will continue to grow.
It is likely that other established offshore operators are considering entry into the Australian market, either by seeking their own licence and introducing their brand to the Australian market, or by acquiring an existing operator. (The most recent change relates to the announcement of the proposed acquisition of Sportingbet (which also conducts business under the Centrebet brand) by William Hill.)
It is also possible that other gambling operators that operate in different gambling sectors may also be looking to enter the online wagering space.
Whilst the advantages of the Australian market are clear, and the most often-cited of these advantages are the regulated Australian market as well as a demographic famous for its love of sport and racing, existing and future competitors will be vying for market share and profitability in an increasingly crowded market. Also, difficulties will be faced due to the limited significant marketing opportunities that remain as a result of recent high-profile exclusive sporting sponsorships entered into by local wagering operators (see below).
Advertising/Live Odds
While there has been an increasing amount of media commentary (see "Sports and Sports Wagering" below) about the possible negative consequences of the reported increased advertising spend of Australian licensed wagering operators, few formal legislative measures have been enacted.
This concern was alluded to in a statement by the Prime Minister in January 2012 that, if the wagering sector did not self regulate to prohibit the promotion of live odds during sports coverage, the government would introduce legislation to this effect by June 2012. Wagering operators have since, as an industry, ceased promoting live odds during sports coverage.
There remains extensive media commentary which seeks further controls on the advertising undertaken by wagering operators. As a result, we anticipate that further controls on the manner in which wagering is advertised will be introduced in 2013, whether by way of industry agreement or governmental regulation. Unless the government takes further action in respect of advertising by wagering operators, and/or unless a recommendation in this respect is made by the Department in its final report, we expect that this issue will continue to be regulated at the industry level.
Sports and Sports Wagering
The recent sponsorship of Cricket Australia by bet365 (in place of Betfair), as well as the recent announcement of Tom Waterhouse's sponsorship of the NRL (in place of the TAB), appear to have, perhaps unsurprisingly, prompted considerable commentary during the Australian cricket season criticising the relationship between, broadly speaking, sport and wagering operators.
Not only does this criticism target the promotion of wagering operators' brands on the sports ground and the broadcast of live odds during breaks, but it also focuses on the promotion and availability of "exotic bets". Exotic bets include, for example, in a cricket match, a bet on the team that will win the toss. The argument often made is that, in general terms, promotion of the availability of these bet types will normalise gambling, and, in particular, children will grow up thinking that certain sports simply exist for the purpose of betting.
Given the steady growth of expenditure on sports wagering (whilst expenditure on race wagering is in decline), wagering operators will continue to invest in their relationship with sports. This will no doubt attract criticism expressing concern at the interdependence between sports and gambling. Given that it is an election year, it is likely that continued commentary on these issues, in some cases for perceived political gain, will continue. However, it is difficult to predict whether the government will intervene to introduce further restrictions.
Conclusion
2013 will give rise to substantial press coverage in Australia relating to online gambling, much of which will be negative. However, there is considerable doubt this will give rise to a significant legislative response.
The imminent Federal election will cause the Department's Interim Report and its recommendations to be the subject of public discussion, particularly at the political level. However, despite the Interim Report demonstrating clearly the ineffectiveness of Australia's regulatory position relating to online gaming, the proximity of the Federal election is likely to delay the consideration of the necessary legislative changes required to implement these recommendations.
The assistance of Jessica Azzi, Solicitor, of Addisons in the preparation of this article is noted and greatly appreciated.
Footnotes
1 First published in January 2013 issue of the World Online Gambling Law Report and reproduced with their permission.
The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.
Specific Questions relating to this article should be addressed directly to the author.

Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Sportech prepares for online betting launch in Connecticut | Holidays Press - Breaking Holiday and Travel News

Sportech prepares for online betting launch in Connecticut | Holidays Press - Breaking Holiday and Travel News

Buy Boyd Gaming Hand Over Fist - Seeking Alpha

Buy Boyd Gaming Hand Over Fist - Seeking Alpha


Disclosure: I am long BYD. (More...)
I have written about Boyd Gaming (BYD) a couple of times recently. First, I wrote about how it was the best way to play the pending legalization of online gambling, primarily because it already has licenses in New Jersey and Nevada in place and it owns 50% of the Borgata, which generates roughly ¼ of gambling revenues for Atlantic City. And I then wrote about how on a relative valuation basis, it looks very cheap.
Yesterday, BYD released its earnings report for Q4 2012 and while the headline figures look weak, there are quite a few silver linings in this report.
Management is hell bent on paring down non-performing assets and focusing on core performing assets. Its strategy is centered around stronger economies in the Midwest and South and on capitalizing on the online gambling movement. To this end, in just the past week they have sold off two assets:
(1) Dania Jai-Alai for $66 million
(2) Echelon site on the Las Vegas strip to the Genting Group for $350 million in cash
Dania Jai-Alai
Sold for $66 million to Dania Entertainment LLC. BYD management stated on the conference call that this property was operating at a $4 million annual loss. Removal of this property should boost EPS $0.05 going forward.
Echelon:
The sale of this property includes the 87-acre land lot as well as any improvements to the site. BYD will take a non-cash impairment charge of $994 million as a result of this sale and they will increase cash by $157 million after paying a portion of their proceeds to LVE Energy Partners. On the conference call the company projected annual savings of $16 million associated with storage costs, insurance costs, and property taxes that they will no longer have to incur. This should boost EPS $0.20 going forward.
Acquired Property - Peninsula Gaming
In November, BYD completed its acquisition of five Peninsula Gaming properties, which generated $57 million in revenues and $21.2 million in adjusted EBIDTA in just the short period from November 20 to December 31, 2012 that it was under BYD's control. Annualized these properties should contribute $400 million in revenues and $150 million in adjusted EBIDTA and significantly boost free cash flow.
Online Gambling:
Boyd is now very well positioned to take advantage of the onlinegambling market, because of its nationwide assortment of properties, and because it now has legislative approval in New Jersey and Nevada. Through a partnership with bwin.party (PYGMF), BYD has an advanced technology platform tailored for online gambling and it also has name recognition in New Jersey with the Borgata. Because the state of New Jersey is only allowing online gambling to those users with an established account with companies that have a casino license and who are physically present in their state, it gives the Borgata a huge advantage over competition because it is by far the largest player and the most well recognized brand in Atlantic City.
The Borgata is synonymous with Atlantic City and given how the rules are set up, it is natural to assume that the Borgata will grab a significant share of the accounts set up for online gambling. Logically if online gambling plays out like it did with the online poker market in the US (where the leader grabbed roughly 40% of the market), then the Borgata could grab well in excess of its current market share of 25% of the market. Dennis Farrell at Wells Fargo estimates the state of New Jersey to generate $1.5 billion in annual revenues from online gambling by 2015. I think this is reasonable given New Jersey's demographics and the expected popularity it will have with smartphone users.
If the NJ market plays out like the US online poker market in the mid 2000's, then it is reasonable to assume that the Borgata could generate up to $600 million in annual revenues from online gambling (or 40% of Dennis Farrell's estimate of $1.5 billion). Half of that would go to BYD, which means a potential boost of up to $300 million in annual revenues, assuming Mr. Farrell is correct (at the end of this article, however, I use a lower estimate to be conservative). Keep in mind the margins that online gambling possesses are far greater than traditional casinos, so a large chunk of these revenues will flow to the bottom line. For example, in 2009 Pokerstars was producing an estimated 35% net profit margin. The passage of online gambling in New Jersey could be quite a shot in the arm for BYD, as I detail at the end of this article.
Pokerstars Facing Potential Ban in U.S.
Yesterday, the US casino industry asked the state of New Jersey to ban Pokerstars.com from returning to the U.S. market. Pokerstars and FullTilt, now under the same parent company, own roughly 50% of the online poker market. Both companies were sued by the Justice Department in 2011 for fraud. The Justice Department claimed they used false billing codes to process bets by US residents after online gambling was barred by Congress in 2006.
The combined entity is significantly larger than their competition, including PartyPoker.com, which is owned by bwin.party and which owns a rough 7% market share. Should Pokerstars be banned from the online gambling market in the US, this would be a huge win for PartyPoker.com. Bwin is a partner with BYD and MGM, whereby BYD would receive 10% ownership of the partnership in the event of passage of online gambling in the US. The online poker market in the mid 2000's was roughly $7 to $8 billion per year and could conceivably grow to $10 billion annually if passed into law in the next couple of years. It could potentially be even larger if you consider the proliferation of smartphones, which were almost non-existent in the mid 2000's.
Should Pokerstars' past transgressions prevent it from entering the US market, PartyPoker.com could conceivable gobble up a large chunk of the 50% market share owned by Pokerstars and Full Tilt…possibly boosting their market share to 25% of the overall market.
While the outcome of passage of online gambling in the US is still uncertain, the movement amongst several states to offer it is gaining momentum and I believe it would be a mistake to ignore this potential in assessing the valuation of BYD. Under a reasonable assumption that PokerStars and Full Tilt are barred from entering the market, if only temporarily, there is the potential for PartyPoker to grab up to $2.5 billion in annual revenues, of which $250 million would fall to BYD.
The Icing on the Cake - Further Asset Sales
As BYD continues to do a complete makeover of its company, additional assets sales are to be expected…or so management would have you believe. On the Q4 2012 conference call, in response to a question about what other things the company is targeting to reduce debt, COO Paul Chakmak stated:
"I think we're not going to lay out the specific plans just like we would on a historical basis do that. I think we continue to be very focused on improving the balance sheet; we have a lot of initiatives that we are considering implementing over the near-term future that will accomplish that. And so that's what we're going to really focus on and we'll let you guys know as we kind of accomplish those rather than lay them out today."
Undergoing a Major Overhaul
Management continues to do an overhaul of its company. It has gotten rid of two albatrosses that should boost EPS by at least $0.25 annually in Echelon and Dania Jai Alai. It has brought on a highly profitable group of properties in the Peninsula Gaming acquisition, and it expects to sell off more non-performing assets in the near future. Additionally, in my opinion, it is in line to benefit the most out of any other casino operator, including Caesar's (CZR), MGM Grand (MGM), or Zynga (ZNGA), from legalization of online gambling in New Jersey. I expect the lion's share of revenues from online gambling to fall to the Borgata and as a result, to BYD. While MGM owns the same 50% stake as BYD does in the Borgata, MGM is valued at almost 10X the valuation of BYD so the impact is far less.
On top of this should Pokerstars.com and Full Tilt receive unfavorable rulings from the U.S. regarding their desire to re-enter the online gambling market, and should online gambling be legalized in the US, then there is a good chance that PartyPoker.com and as a result, BYD, would be a significant beneficiary.
Valuation is Very Compelling
In my prior article I valued BYD on a price to free cash flow basis and showed just how cheap it was compared to other casino operators. Namely, it trades at 3.5 times free cash flow. Isle of Capri Casinos (ISLE) and Penn Gaming (PENN) trade at 6.2X and 13.8X, respectively, and Ameristar Casinos (ASCA) was recently purchased for 5X free cash flow. And my calculation did not take into account the benefit from Peninsula Gaming because their financials were not available at the time. Nor did it take into account any benefit from online gambling.
I believe the market is also grossly underestimating the benefit that legalization of online gambling will have on BYD. If we assume that the Borgata garners a 30% market share and the overall market grows to $1 billion by 2015 (33% less than what Dennis Farrell is estimating) then BYD would get 1/2 of $300 million in revenues or $150 million in revenues. Assuming slightly lower net margins than what PokerStars experienced in 2009 of 30%, BYD could generate $45 million in net profits from online gambling in New Jersey alone. On its current share count, that would result in $0.52 EPS. Add this to the current estimate of $0.65 EPS for 2014 and adjust for some modest growth and its easy to see how BYD could be generating $1.25 to $1.50 EPS in 2015.
CONCLUSION
I would highly recommend purchasing BYD at any price below $8. I think it is undergoing an overhaul that will make it much more profitable and I believe they are the most poised to immediately take advantage of online gambling in New Jersey and Nevada. I do not think the market currently appreciates how much of a transformation this company is undergoing and how much of an impact the approval of online gambling in New Jersey will have on the company. If my projections of $1.40 EPS are accurate, BYD could trade well into the 20's by 2015.